## Causality

*30 Jul 2013 22:50*

There is unfortunately no accepted name for the scientific study of causality, or of methods for inferring it. "Etiology" suggests itself, but it's already taken...

Causal inference is an important enough sub-problem to get spun out of here. (I don't feel up to updating all of my links.)

- Recommended (current big picture):
- Clark Glymour
- The Mind's Arrows: Bayes Nets and Graphical Causal Models in Psychology [Mini-review]
- "What Went Wrong? Reflections on Science by Observation
and The Bell Curve", Philosophy of Science
**65**(1998): 1--32 [PDF reprint via Prof. Glymour]

- Stephen L. Morgan and Christopher Winship, Counterfactuals and Causal Inference: Methods and Principles for Social Research [Mini-review]
- Judea Pearl
- "Causal Inference in Statistics: An Overview",
Statistics Surveys
**3**(2009): 96--146 - Causality: Models, Reasoning and Inference

- "Causal Inference in Statistics: An Overview",
Statistics Surveys
- Peter Spirtes, Clark Glymour and Richard Scheines, Causation, Prediction and Search [Comments]

- Recommended (more specialized):
- David Galles and Judea Pearl
- Clark Glymour, "When Is a Brain Like the Planet?",
Philosophy of
Science
**74**(2007): 330--347 - Dominik Janzing, "On causally asymmetric versions of Occam's Razor and their relation to thermodynamics", arxiv:0708.3411
- Maxim Raginsky, "Directed information and Pearl's causal calculus", arxiv:1110.0718
- James M. Robins, Tyler J. VanderWeele, Richard D. Gill, "A proof of Bell's inequality in quantum mechanics using causal interactions", arxiv:1207.4913
- Wesley Salmon
- Scientific Explanation and the Causal Structure of the World
- Causality and Explanation

- Herbert Simon
- "Causal Ordering and Identifiability", in Studies in Econometric Method, 1953; reprinted as chapter 1 in Simon's Models of Man [PDF of the 1950 preprint version, as "The Causal Principle and the Identification Problem"]
- "Spurious Correlation: A Causal Interpretation",
Journal of the American Statistical
Association
**49**(1954): 467-479 [PDF reprint]

- Christopher Winship, Counterfactual Causal Analysis [Repository page with papers aimed at sociological applications]

- Recommended (historical):
- Hubert M. Blalock, Causal Inferences in Nonexperimental Research [1962, so technically obsolete, but interesting to see just how many of the pieces that came together in the early 1990s were in place much earlier. One of his procedures seems to be something like a cross between an instrumental variable and propensity score matching.]
- David Hume
- ibn Rushd (= Averroes)
- Tahafut al-Tahafut [Which, needless to say, I've only read in translation]
- Barry Kogan, Averroes and the Metaphysics of Causation

- Jerzy Neyman, "On the Application of Probability Theory to
Agricultural Experiments: Essay on Principles, Section
9", Statistical
Science
**5**(1990): 465--472 [Translation of a portion of Neyman's 1923 dissertation] - Hans Reichenbach, The Direction of Time [Comments]
- Bertrand Russell
- The Analysis of Matter
- Human Knowledge: Its Scope and Limits

- Modesty forbids me to recommend:
- CRS and Andrew C. Thomas, "Homophily and Contagion Are Generically Confounded in Observational Social Network Studies", arxiv:1004.4704 [Less-technical weblog version]

- To read:
- Mickel Aickin, Causal Analysis in Biomedicine and Epidemiology: Based on Minimal Sufficient Causation
- P. O. Amblard and O. J. J. Michel, "On directed information theory and Granger causality graphs", arxiv:1002.1446
- Nihat Ay, "A Refinement of the Common Cause Principle", SFI Working Paper 08-01-001 [PDF]
- Joseph Keim Campbell, Michael O'Rourke and Harry S. Silverstein (eds.), Causation and Explanation
- Nancy Cartwright, Hunting Causes and Using Them: Approaches in Philosophy and Economics [Extremely harsh critiques by Pearl and Glymour ("All of her critical claims are false or at best fractionally true")]
- John Collins, Ned Hall, L.A. Paul (eds.), Causation and Counterfactuals
- Daniel Commenges, Anne Gegout-Petit, "A general dynamical statistical model with possible causal interpretation", Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B
**71**(2009): 719--736, arxiv:0710.4396 - Vanessa Didelez, Philip Dawid, Sara Geneletti, "Direct and Indirect Effects of Sequential Treatments", UAI 2006, arxiv:1206.6840 [I have great respect for the authors, but I will be very curious to see how they define "intervention" without using counterfactual concepts!]
- Ehtibar N. Dzhafarov, Janne V. Kujala, "Selectivity in Probabilistic Causality: Drawing Arrows from Inputs to Stochastic Outputs", arxiv:1108.3074
- Frederick Eberhardt and Richard Scheines, "Interventions and Causal Inference", phil-sci/2944
- Ellery Eells, Probabilistic Causality
- Michael Eichler and Vanessa Didelez, "Causal Reasoning in Graphical Time Series Models", UAI 2007, arxiv:1206.5246
- Adam Elga, "Isolation and Folk Physics", phi-sci/2678 [Ordinary notions of causality as approximations to real physics, under conditions of near-independence]
- David A. Freedman
- "On Specifying Graphical Models for Causation," UCB Stat. Tech. Rep. 601 [abstract, pdf]
- Statistical Models and Causal Inference: A Dialogue with the Social Sciences

- Galavotti (ed.), Stochastic Causality
- Anne Gegout-Petit and Daniel Commenges, "A general definition of influence between stochastic processes", arxiv:0905.3619
- Clark Glymour, "Rabbit
Hunting", Synthese
**121**(1999): 55--78 [PDF reprint] - Glymour and Cooper (eds.), Computation, Causation and Discovery
- Adam Glynn and Kevin Quinn, "Non-parametric Mechanisms and Causal Modeling" [PDF preprint]
- Alison Gopnik and Laura Schulz (eds.), Causal Learning: Psychology, Philosophy and Computation
- Christian Gourieroux, Alain Monfort and Eric Renault, "Kullback
Causality Measures", Annales d'Economie et de Statistique
**6--7**(1987): 369--410 [via Maxim Raginsky] - Zalán Gyenis and Miklós Rédei, "Characterizing Common Cause Closed Probability Spaces", Philosophy of Science
**78**(2011): 393--409 - Joseph Y. Halpern and Judea Pearl, "Causes and Explanations: A Structural-Model Approach", "Part I: Causes", cs.AI/0011012, and "Part II: Explanations," cs.AI/0208034
- Jeffrey Haydu, "Reversals of fortune: path dependency,
problem solving, and temporal cases", Theory and Society
**39**(2010): 25--48 - Joe Henson, "Comparing causality principles",
Studies in
History and Philosophy of Modern Physics
**36**(2005): 519--543 - Kevin D. Hoover, Causality in Macroeconomics
- Dominik Janzing, Xiaohai Sun and Bernhard Schölkopf, "Distinguishing Cause and Effect via Second Order Exponential Models", arxiv:0910.5561
- Stanley Lieberson, "The Big Broad Issues in Society and Social History: Application of a Probabilistic Perspective", pp. 359--385 in Vaughn R. McKim and Stephen P. Turner (eds.), Causality in Crisis? Statistical Methods and the Search for Causal Knowledge in the Social Sciences [PDF reprint]
- T. Lombrozo, "Causal-explanatory pluralism: How intentions, functions, and mechanisms influence causal ascriptions", Cognitive Psychology
**61**(2010): 303--332 - Vaughn R. McKim and Stephen P. Turner (ed.), Causality in Crisis? Statistical Methods and the Search for Causal Knowledge in the Social Sciences
- K. Mengersen, S. A. Moynihan, R. L. Tweedie, "Causality and Association: The Statistical and Legal Approaches", arxiv:0710.4459
- Peter Menzies, "A Structural Equations Account of Negative Causation", phil-sci/2962
- John D. Norton, "Causation as Folk Science," phil-sci/1214
- Farid Nouioua, "Why did the accident happen? A norm-based reasoning approach", cs.AI/0610015
- L. A. (Laurie) Paul and Ned Hall, Causation: A User's Guide
- David T. Pegg, "Causality in quantum mechanics",
Physics
Letters A
**349**(2006): 411--414 - Huw Price and Richard Corry (eds.), Causation, Physics, and the Constitution of Reality: Russell's Republic Revisited
- Adam Przeworski, "Is the Science of Comparative Politics Possible?" [PDF preprint. On drawing causal conclusions from natural "quasi-experiments".]
- Miklós Rédei and Stephen J. Summers, "Remarks on Causality in Relativistic Quantum Field Theory", quant-ph/0302115
- Eva Riccomagno, Jim Q. Smith
- "Algebraic causality: Bayes nets and beyond", arxiv:0709.3377
- "The causal manipulation of chain event graphs", 0709.3380

- Federica Russo, "Correlational data, causal hypotheses, and validity", phil-sci/8349
- Federica Russo and Jon Williamson, "Generic versus Single-case Causality: the Case of Autopsy", phil-sci/5148
- Glenn Shafer, The Art of Causal Conjecture [Bought from an on-line bookstore which gave the title as The Art of Casual Conjecture; a book which should be written. Reviwed by Glymour (PDF)]
- Ilya Shpitser, Judea Pearl, "Complete Identification Methods for
the Causal
Hierarchy", Journal of
Machine Learning Research
**9**(2008): 1941--1979 ["We consider a hierarchy of queries about causal relationships in graphical models, where each level in the hierarchy requires more detailed information than the one below. The hierarchy consists of three levels: associative relationships, derived from a joint distribution over the observable variables; cause-effect relationships, derived from distributions resulting from external interventions; and counterfactuals, derived from distributions that span multiple "parallel worlds" and resulting from simultaneous, possibly conflicting observations and interventions. We completely characterize cases where a given causal query can be computed from information lower in the hierarchy"] - Dan Sperber, David Premack and Ann James Premack (eds.), Causal Cognition: A Multidisciplinary Debate
- Patrick Suppes
- Patrick Suppes, Scientific Philosopher
- A Probabilistic Theory of Causality
- Representation and Invariance

- G. A. Svechnikov, Causality and the Relation of States in Physics
- Brad Weslake, "Common Causes and The Direction of Causation", phil-sci 2383
- Phillip Wolff, "Representing Causation", phil-sci/3177
- James Woodward, Making Things Happen: A Theory of Causal Explanation [Review by Glymour]

- To write:
- CRS, "Causality in Models of Dynamics"